By Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry
SAO PAULO, March 18 (Reuters) - Brazil could face fertilizer supply problems if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, the nation's agriculture minister said on Tuesday, criticizing sellers for sharp increases in local urea prices as analysts warned farmers may turn to cheaper alternatives.
Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro stated that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran had already caused urea price increases in Brazil within days, with some sellers suspending sales despite holding inventories prior to the conflict.
Market pressures have intensified since late February following joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, with shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz unsettling the energy and fertilizer industries. Approximately one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through this waterway, according to some estimates.
Favaro warned that a prolonged conflict could pose broader risks to Brazil's farm sector, which imported a record 45.5 million metric tons of fertilizers in 2025.
"It is a concern, naturally. There is a sense that there is a certain opportunism in the market, after all, stocks already present in Brazil have been repriced. That makes no sense," Favaro said.
StoneX reported that prices of urea delivered to Brazil jumped about 35% in two weeks, making the product less attractive to buyers and potentially pushing importers and farmers toward cheaper options such as ammonium sulfate.
The brokerage cited data showing Brazil's urea imports in the first two months of the year fell 33% from a year earlier, while ammonium sulfate imports rose 19%.
Urea is one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers on Brazilian farms due to its high nutrient concentration, which usually justifies its cost. However, when prices rise sharply, buyers may switch to cheaper, lower-concentration products.
Lower prices for Brazil's agricultural exports have added to the tough decisions now facing farmers, StoneX analyst Tomas Pernias said in the report.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry; Editing by Brad Haynes and Aurora Ellis)
